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How the Availability Heuristic Skews Your Thinking (and What to Do About It)

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by

Lyla
in

This is a reading note from Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman, Chapter 12: The Science of Availability.

Why do people think some coworkers contribute more than others, even when they don’t?
Why do we misjudge how assertive we are or how much we’ve done in a team project?

The answer often lies in a mental shortcut: the availability heuristic.

Let’s break it down—and, more importantly, learn how to spot it, avoid it, and use it wisely in our daily lives.

🔍 What Is the Availability Heuristic?

It’s our brain’s way of answering this question:

“How likely or frequent is something?”

But instead of looking up facts or data, we answer a simpler question:

“How easily do examples come to mind?”

The easier it is to recall, the more common or true we think it is — even if it’s not.

🧠 Who’s in Charge? System 1 vs System 2

According to Daniel Kahneman, two systems drive our thinking:

  • System 1: Fast, intuitive, automatic.
  • System 2: Slow, deliberate, analytical.

In the availability heuristic:

  • System 1 retrieves vivid, recent, or dramatic examples — and forms instant judgments.
  • System 2 can override those snap judgments if you slow down and think.

Example:
If you constantly hear praise about a colleague, you won’t be surprised when they perform well — System 1 has already set that expectation.

⚠️ Everyday Situations Where We Get It Wrong

1. Overestimating rare events

“My coworker always has the best ideas in meetings.”

Reality: They may have had just one standout idea recently, but it’s what you remember.

2. Self-assessment traps

In a study by Norbert Schwarz, people asked to list 12 recent examples of being assertive rated themselves less assertive than those asked to list 6.

Why? It was harder to come up with 12 examples, so they assumed they weren’t very assertive.

This same bias affects how we rate our public speaking, leadership, or even likability.

3. Judging products or people unfairly

“I can’t think of many benefits of this product… It must not be great.”

Even when we like something, if it’s hard to list reasons, our brain downgrades our opinion.

💬 Why We Overcredit Ourselves in Teams and Relationships

In group settings — like marriages, families, or teams — something strange happens:

Everyone feels they’ve done more than their share.

That’s because your own efforts are more available to you than others’ invisible work.
Acknowledging that over 100% of credit often gets claimed can defuse conflict and build empathy.

💡 3 Real-Life Tips to Avoid Availability Bias

✅ 1. Pause and ask:

  • Am I making this judgment based on facts or just vivid examples?
  • What’s missing that isn’t coming easily to mind?

✅ 2. Know when you and others are vulnerable:

You’re more likely to fall for availability bias when you are:

  • Distracted
  • In a good mood
  • Overconfident
  • New to the topic
  • Feeling powerful

These states increase System 1’s influence — which can distort your thinking.

✅ 3. Name the bias out loud

Noticing when others (or you) are relying on “what’s top of mind” can help reframe decisions and smooth over misunderstandings.

🚀 How to Use It to Your Advantage

🌟 1. In Self-Promotion

You might be doing great work, but if no one can recall it, it’s like it never happened.

Historical Example

In the Ming Dynasty, Xia Yan (夏言) was a senior official known for his integrity and administrative talent. He served under Emperor Jia Jing (嘉靖帝) during a politically volatile time when court intrigue was rampant.

Xia Yan often advised the emperor honestly, even if it meant contradicting him — a rare trait in a time when flattery was safer than truth. His political rivals, especially Yan Song (严嵩) and his son Yan Shifan (严世蕃), saw this as a threat.

Over time, Yan Song and his son repeatedly fed negative reports and rumors about Xia Yan to the emperor. Their relentless framing made negative impressions of Xia more mentally available to Jia Jing than Xia’s decades of loyal service.

Eventually, the emperor — overwhelmed by repeated accusations and likely primed by the availability heuristic — ordered Xia Yan’s execution in 1548.

This tragic fall wasn’t just a result of political rivalry — it was also a cognitive bias at play: what’s repeated becomes remembered, and what’s remembered becomes trusted.

Modern example:
In Smart, Not Loud, Jessica Chen shares a story from her career.
She wanted a reporting opportunity, told her manager once — but a colleague kept bringing it up.
When the opportunity was assigned to the colleague, Jessica asked why.
The manager said: “I didn’t know you still wanted it — but they kept talking about it.”
The manager wasn’t malicious — just distracted and busy, which made him rely on what came to mind most easily.

That experience inspired Jessica to write the book — to help people get noticed for the right reasons by making their contributions more available to others.

Takeaway: Don’t assume one-time mentions are enough. Repetition, visibility, and clarity matter.

🤝 2. In Relationships

Help others see your invisible contributions — not by bragging, but by making the impact visible and mutual.

🧠 3. In Decision-Making

Balance what’s vivid with what’s true. Create lists, reflect, or consult others before acting on instinct alone.

🧭 Final Thought

The availability heuristic is like a mental highlight reel — but it often leaves key footage on the cutting room floor.
To think clearly and act wisely, we must ask:

Is this real — or just easy to remember?

Recognizing this one bias can lead to better decisions, healthier relationships, and more visibility where it counts.

📚 References

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